I did a search on LinkedIN. Is no one discussing this? Really?
To start with, a deliberately provocative statement – “no housing development is currently sustainable anywhere in the United Kingdom”. Before reading further, please engage your imagination and your grasp of mathematics.
We are advised by the Brundtland Report (UN, 1987) that sustainable development "meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. Sustainable development happens at the confluence of its three constituent parts: Environment, Social and Economic. This was defined in W. M. Adams report “The Future of Sustainability: Re-thinking Environment and Development in the Twenty-first Century" of 2006. The National Planning Policy Framework is based upon the same definition of sustainability, as far as the writer understands.
Here is an anecdote:
When my father bought his first house (3-bed terrace) around 1957, the cost of the house was 1.50 times his annual salary as a post office worker behind the counter. When I bought my first house (3-bed terrace) in about 1984 the cost was about 2.50 times my annual salary as an architectural assistant. It was reported recently on BBC Radio Gloucestershire that the average house in the Cotswolds is now 11.50 times the National average salary. A sensational aberration, maybe.
Luckily you can look up recent affordability data or price/earnings ratio on http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1/economic_insight/halifax_house_price_index_page.asp
Clearly, at 4.49 (January 2011) housing is less affordable than as recounted above. Statistics are available going back to April 1983 when the price/earnings ratio was 3.50.
The questions we need to ask are simple.
Can the increase in price earnings ratio continue indefinitely? Clearly it can not and so is any housing development sustainable? No, it is not.
Those of you who disagree should consider the following (and here’s the maths). With a mortgage there are two key variables – the term and the monthly repayments. As such, there will inevitably come a point (it is a mathematical certainty), when the mortgage term exceeds average lifespan or the monthly repayments exceed average earnings. Neither situation can ever work. As such, the current arrangements for financing all housing development is not sustainable, because it simply cannot go on to serve future generations. Allowing the price/earnings ratio to increase does not meet the Economic criteria for sustainable development.
This may be one of the best examples of the law of unintended consequences ever.
Further reading http://www.communities.gov.uk/planningandbuilding/planningsystem/planningpolicy/planningpolicyframework/
